GAME DAY! #5 Illinois (20-3, 11-1) at #10 Michigan State (19-4, 9-3), 7:00 PM CT on FOX from the Breslin Center in East Lansing. Jason Benetti and Steve Smith on the call. (I freaking love Benetti - always a pleasure to have him call our games)
Twelve in a row. Let that breathe for a second.
At the start of this three-weekend gauntlet (at Purdue, at Nebraska, at Michigan State) most of us would’ve signed in blood for one win out of three and felt great about it. Instead, the Illini went to Mackey Arena and punched Purdue in the mouth. Then they marched into Lincoln and handed the fifth-ranked Huskers their first home loss of the season. Now Brad Underwood’s squad has a chance to sweep three weekend slog of road games againt top 10 teams and stay undefeated in Big Ten road games this season… 6-0 away from Champaign, with the lone conference loss coming at home. Undefeated. On the road. In the Big Ten. That’s 👏not 👏normal👏.
The Spartans are wounded; they’ve dropped two straight, losing to in-state rival Michigan and then falling at Minnesota 76-73…and they just lost guard Divine Ugochukwu to a foot injury for the rest of the season. But wounded Sparty in Breslin is arguably more dangerous than confident Sparty. Tom Izzo is pissed and has been doing this for three decades, and if there’s one thing you can count on, it’s that his team will come out swinging in a nationally televised primetime spot with their backs against the wall.
Foul-merchant Jeremy Fears Jr. is the X factor - love him or hate him (hate him!), he’s good at what he does. The point guard has been on an absurd tear and can single-handedly swing a game with his ability to create in the open floor. Jaxon Kohler gives them legitimate inside-out scoring, and Coen Carr’s rim-rattling athleticism makes Sparty dangerous in transition. This team is never out of a fight.
WHAT TO WATCH
Woof….not exactly a heavy-hitting lineup for Saturday. Makes sense with Nebraska hosting Illinois tomorrow and Michigan/Michigan State already battling it out last night. But here’s what we’ve got:
1. Indiana (NET: 32) at UCLA (NET: 40)
Watch Score: 72 | 4:00 PM CT | NBCSN, Peacock
✅ Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana
The Hoosiers head to Pauley Pavilion in what looks like the day’s most watchable matchup. Indiana (NET 32) needs every quality win it can grab, and a true road victory against UCLA (NET 40) would do serious work for their tournament resume. For UCLA, protecting home court against a Big Ten opponent might help them enter the bubble conversation.
2. Ohio State (NET: 37) at Wisconsin (NET: 43)
Watch Score: 80 | 1:00 PM CT | FOX
✅ Quad 1 opportunity for Ohio State
A solid Big Ten road battle between two potentially tournament-caliber teams. Ohio State travels to Madison looking to maintain position in the NCAA conversation, while Wisconsin protects home court. Neither team is lighting the world on fire this season, but this is competent, physical Big Ten basketball with actual stakes.
3. Washington (NET: 58) at Northwestern (NET: 66)
Watch Score: 124 | 7:00 PM CT | Peacock
✅ Quad 1 opportunity for Washington
Two middle-bottom-tier Big Ten teams battling it out in Evanston. Washington and Northwestern haven’t done much to inspire confidence this season.
4. Rutgers (NET: 165) at USC (NET: 48)
Watch Score: 213 | 6:00 PM CT | NBCSN, Peacock
✅ Quad 1 opportunity for Rutgers (good luck bro)
USC handles business here. Rutgers is buried toward the bottom of the standings. This game doesn’t move the needle much for me.
AYO TRADE ANALYSIS
I wanted to share this great analysis of the Ayo-to-the-Wolves trade written up on the Basketball Poetry substack. Check out their work for more on the NBA - it’s great stuff.
Ayo Dosunmu, long a favorite of various blogosphere leading lights, is finally free.
Dosunmu has always been a 5.5th man; good enough to start, not quite good enough to stay a starter. Perhaps relatedly, he’s having his finest campaign ever while starting less than he ever has. Dosunmu is setting career-highs in three-point accuracy (45%), three-point volume (5.8 3PA per 75 possessions, roughly average positional volume), points (15.0), true shooting (64%), and assist rate (21.3%, which is nice for a non-point-guard). He’s a stalwart defender with the size and agility to guard one to three, and he’s so quick in transition that it catches even the camera people off guard.
A whopping half of Dosunmu’s shots come at the rim. He would’ve been so good on the 2019 Houston Rockets.Dosunmu’s three-pointer will probably regress, but even if he shoots his career 38% going forward on this volume, that makes him a real 3-and-D wing with pace-pushing and playmaking chops. Guys like that tend to get paid, and Dosunmu (who becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year) will be looking for a substantial upgrade on the $7.5 million he’s making this season.
But that’s a concern for the future. The Timberwolves are trying to win right now, and Dosunmu is about as good a fit for them as was available. Donte DiVincenzo is a better and far more prodigious shooter, but Dosunmu is better at nearly everything else. Having both available as options at guard next to Anthony Edwards gives Chris Finch much more flexibility (and Dosunmu can even run a little point in a pinch). We might even see some fun three-guard lineups!
Before this trade, the Timberwolves had just six and a half reliable players: Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels, with the half being cobbled-together Frankenstein minutes between Bones Hyland (offense) and Jaylen Clark (defense). That wasn’t deep enough. The Timberwolves are still rather thin, but Dosunmu’s two-way steadiness will be a blessing. There’s a reason I predicted this exact trade on RealGM radio a few weeks ago.
Phillips, an athletic swingman, likely won’t factor into the rotation, but the Wolves need small forwards. Maybe he’ll earn a few spot minutes.
Four seconds ain’t nothing, and some might’ve preferred the more offensively-oriented game of Dosunmu’s former teammate, Coby White. Not me, even if I’d agree White is better in a vacuum. The Wolves are good, and just got better.
Grade: A-
THIS DAY IN ILLINI HISTORY
2013: Illinois 74, #1 Indiana 72
On this date in 2013, unranked Illinois pulled off one of the most electric upsets in program history, knocking off #1 Indiana 74-72 on a buzzer-beating layup by Tyler Griffey at then-Assembly Hall in Champaign.
The Illini had no business winning this game. They were 3-7 in Big Ten play, had lost eight of their last eleven, and trailed by 10 points with under five minutes to play after center Nnanna Egwu fouled out. Indiana, led by Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, had just reclaimed the #1 ranking by beating Michigan and looked every bit the part of the nation’s best team.
Then D.J. Richardson went nuclear. Back-to-back threes. A pull-up midrange jumper on the run. In the span of about three minutes, Richardson single-handedly erased a double-digit deficit and tied the game at 70. He finished with 23 points. Brandon Paul added 21 of his own in one of those classic Paul eruptions.
With the game knotted at 72 and under 30 seconds remaining, Oladipo coughed up the ball. Richardson grabbed it and drove for the go-ahead layup, only to have Oladipo swat it out of bounds. That set up the final play: 0.9 seconds left. Paul inbounded from the baseline. Griffey, who had been benched weeks earlier during a losing skid, slipped behind Zeller and Watford, caught the pass in stride, and laid it in as the buzzer sounded. The building erupted. Students stormed the court.
It was Illinois’ first win over a #1-ranked team since the 2004 takedown of Wake Forest, and it became the fifth consecutive week in 2013 that the nation’s top-ranked team had lost. John Groce’s squad went on to win seven of their next eight, punched a ticket to the NCAA Tournament, and beat Colorado in the Round of 64 before falling to Miami in the Round of 32.
Richardson, Paul, Griffey were three seniors who refused to let that season die. Twelve years later, the memory of that layup still gives you chills.